The Egypt : The long standoff

Egypt

THE Nile flows placidly in one direction, but the tides of Egyptian politics, now at full flood, have not been so predictable lately. The past two weeks of unrest have seen the power of public opinion roll at times in favour of the country’s huge protest movement, then gush back to reinforce the regime. The question of who remains standing when things calm down will affect not just Egypt, but the region.

Egypt Image

To general relief, the unrest seems to have passed its most violent phase. Human Rights Watch, an advocacy group, has documented 302 deaths so far, many of them victims of police gunfire on the nights of January 28th and 29th. Now, however, a semblance of normal life has resumed in most of the country. Banks are open, Cairo traffic snarled as usual. Regular police, bolstered by the army, have replaced citizens’ patrols. Egypt’s currency has bounced back from a slight dip and looks solid, though tourism remains badly hit. Egypt’s stock exchange may be up and running by next week.

EGYPT IMAGE

Peaceful protests continue, however, and are even intensifying. In Egypt’s biggest cities, Cairo and Alexandria, huge crowds continue to gather, demanding much more far-reaching change than President Hosni Mubarak has yet been willing to consider. The tent city in Cairo’s central Tahrir Square has expanded, with swarms of protesters now engulfing nearby government buildings, including Egypt’s parliament. Sporadic unrest still roils remoter provinces, with reports of clashes between police and protesters south of Cairo, in Port Said, in the northern Sinai peninsula and in the desert oasis of Kharga. Industrial strikes and sit-ins are also spreading, though it is unclear if workers are motivated by politics or by demands for better pay.

Egypt Wallpaper

The resilience of the protest movement appears to have left Mr Mubarak’s men struggling to catch up. The concessions they have granted so far are not small, and would have been considered stunning only weeks ago. The first round of these included Mr Mubarak’s promise that neither he nor his son Gamal will run for president in elections scheduled for September; the installation of a new cabinet and prime minister; pledges not to attack or prosecute protesters, and to release political prisoners; detention and prosecution of some former officials, including the interior minister; and a pledge to honour verdicts in hundreds of court challenges to parliamentary elections in December that gave the ruling party nearly 90% of seats.

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In a second round of placatory gestures, the men at the top of the ruling National Democratic Party, including Mr Mubarak’s son and other longtime stalwarts, were replaced with milder figures. The new vice-president, Omar Suleiman, a former intelligence chief, invited dozens of opposition figures, including representatives of the still officially outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, to talks. In what the government portrayed as a response to these, Mr Mubarak decreed the formation of three “independent” commissions. One, composed of senior jurists, is to propose changes to Egypt’s constitution that will lift restrictions on who may run for president, the second is charged with pursuing the dialogue with opposition forces, and the third with investigating attacks on protesters by hired pro-Mubarak gangs. For good measure, the government promised a 15% pay rise to its 8m employees.

The Long Standroff

Mr Suleiman, increasingly the face of the regime, describes these moves as meeting nearly all the protesters’ demands. While conceding that change is inevitable and necessary, he insists that reforms must take place in accordance with Egypt’s constitution, a document created in 1971 that grants regal powers to the presidency, and allows for little oversight of such institutions as the army and intelligence services.

View Of Egypt

He has also pleaded for time, insisting that since barely 200 days remain before September’s scheduled presidential election, space must be made for the motions of reform, including the drafting and passage of bills before Egypt’s parliament. Mr Mubarak cannot simply resign, he says, because this would activate a constitutional provision requiring elections within 60 days, and Egypt is not ready. The notorious Emergency Law that allows indefinite detention of suspects, and which has been enforced throughout Mr Mubarak’s three decades in power, can be lifted only when security conditions allow, he insists.

Free Egypt Now

Such arguments appeal to many. Fears of wider unrest contributed to the decision by parts of Egypt’s fragmented opposition to embrace Mr Suleiman’s offer of dialogue. But serial blunders by Mr Mubarak’s supporters have repeatedly undermined their position. The brutal onslaught on Tahrir Square by mobs of knife- and gun-wielding “pro-stability” thugs on February 2nd, which left at least 11 dead and more than 1,000 wounded, caused revulsion. Mr Suleiman’s own utterances have not helped much, either. In one interview he described the protesters as puppets of foreign agents, and advised their parents to tell them to go home.

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To the youthful core of protesters, such words only reinforce the sense that Egypt’s ageing elite is out of touch and unwilling to budge. The purge in the ruling party, and the appointment of grey-haired committees to consider change, appear to them mere window-dressing. Although the army has stood back, the persistence of arbitrary detentions, the persecution of independent media and the continued manipulation of news by Egypt’s government-owned press all feed distrust of the regime’s intentions.

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Crucially, Egypt’s independent press, long pressured by the powerful ministry of information, is increasingly outspoken. Private newspapers and television have embraced the protests with growing boldness, showcasing photographs of “martyred” youths slain in the protests, interviewing their families and emphasising their respectable middle-class backgrounds. Several popular chat-show hosts have challenged the government on air and demanded the release of prisoners.

Egypt Protest

The television appearance on February 7th of Wael Ghoneim, the founder of a Facebook page commemorating a youth who was killed by plainclothes police in Alexandria last year, electrified Egyptian audiences. Mr Ghoneim’s Facebook group, which now counts more than 600,000 members, is widely credited with mustering the middle-class crowds that launched Egypt’s wave of protests, but he himself was abducted by police early in the unrest. Released under intense public pressure after 12 days during which he was held incommunicado and blindfolded, Mr Ghoneim broke down in tears on a live television show when presented with pictures of those killed during clashes with police. “It’s not our fault,” he sobbed. “It’s the fault of everyone in power who governed.”

Egypt People

For many fence-sitting Egyptians, Mr Ghoneim’s appearance both gave a respectable face to the protests, and amplified the sense of grievance against the regime. All through the next day record crowds flocked to Tahrir Square, energising and emboldening the core protesters. At several government-owned newspapers, staff have threatened to oust state-appointed editors. Government-controlled trade unions face similar internal revolts. The newly appointed minister of culture has resigned, bowing to fierce criticism from fellow intellectuals.

Schism has even erupted within Egypt’s biggest religious institutions. With increasing openness, Muslims accuse such figures as the sheikh of al-Azhar, Cairo’s 1,000 year old seat of Islamic studies, of being stooges for the government. Members of Egypt’s 10% Coptic Christian community show growing discomfort with the 87-year-old Pope Shenouda, a staunch supporter of Mr Mubarak.

EGYPT WALLPAPER

The youth groups that launched Egypt’s protests have not, to date, budged from their first demands: Mr Mubarak must resign, parliament must be dissolved, the Emergency Law must be rescinded immediately and a caretaker coalition government formed to pave the way for fair elections and a new constitution. They reject any dialogue with the state until at least some of these basic goals are met.

Egypt : The Long Standroff

Many observers had predicted that these groups, which represent the youth branches of the Muslim Brotherhood and several secular parties, as well as people with no ideology other than a desire for democracy, would be worn down by the state’s resistance, isolated by public opinion, or splinter into factions. Mr Suleiman has hinted that the Muslim Brotherhood is plotting to ride the unrest in order eventually to impose an Islamic state. But this scenario now worries fewer secular Egyptians. The plain evidence from Tahrir Square is that Islamists make up only a fraction of Egypt’s protest movement, albeit an enthusiastic and well-disciplined one, and that they have largely followed events rather than led them. Many Egyptians have been thrilled to see Christians and Muslims, including robed priests and turbaned Azharite scholars, mingling cheerfully in the square.

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Much as the government has tried to depict its predicament as a struggle between unrealistic ideals and sage pragmatism, the mood now seems riper than ever for real change. Yet it is not easy to gauge this balance of forces. Mr Mubarak appears to retain the absolute loyalty of Mr Suleiman, and also of the army, as well as the battered but still formidable strength of the internal security agencies. The opposition has few ways to express its power, other than staying on the street and appealing through the media. For now, however, it is the young protesters who have the initiative. They have declared Friday February 11th a Day of Martyrs, and even more millions of Egyptians are likely to take to the streets. They will be hoping that there will be no more martyrs to count.